Understanding Support Levels

Targeted campaigning is an essential strategy in any election race. It helps us figure out which voters support us, which voters are non-supporters, and which voters are undecided but could potentially be persuaded and become supporters. 

Any data we collect from a constituent, can be converted into a simple number, thus using the scale as a targeting tool. The more information we gather about a voter, the more accurate his or her support level become. This can make it easier to decide which areas/people to target, which areas/people to focus on, during the campaign and GOTV. 

Everything that we know about a person can raise or lower their support level. For example, if a constituent has indicated to a phone canvasser that they will support the PC Party, then that constituent will have a score of +5. If that constituent then indicates that they wish to have a lawn sign, their score will go up two more points, for a total of +7. On the other hand, if a constituent indicates that they do not wish to support the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, then that constituent will have a score of -5. Finally, if someone indicates that they may support us or another political party or haven’t made up their mind, then they will have a score around +2, or -2 or 0 depending on their response. The more information we have about the constituent, the more accurate their score may be. 

The range of support levels is roughly -15 to +15. A mathematical algorithm keeps the values within this spectrum so constituents need dozens of tracking events to reach or exceed either -15 or +15. Therefore, the first things we learn about a voter will move them very quickly up or down in support.

This chart shows the common range of support levels and what they mean:

Non-Supporter	Accessible Somewhat	Undecided	Accessible Likely	Supporter

= Supporter, +5 and greater

= Accessible Likely (leaning toward PC), +1 to +4

= Undecided (not yet leaning to any party), +0

= Accessible Somewhat (leaning away from PC), -1 to -4

= Non Supporter, -5 and lower

= Unknown, N/A (no number means we don’t know anything about the voter)

Support levels are calculated using various pieces of data throughout CIMS, including but not limited to:

-Membership
-Volunteering
-Surveys 
-Donations
-Lawn Signs
-Event Attendance
-Training Attendance
-Phonebanking and/or door-to-door canvassing - whether they have participated in it by volunteering for a candidate or campaign OR the results gathered by a phone call or at the door-to-canvasser
-Voter History - this does not tell us who they specifically voted for, but will tell us if they have voted in the past, if they are frequent voters or not, and the method of voting (ie: Advanced Poll, Mail-in-Ballot, etc.) 

Specific information is gathered from these general sections of the program. For instance, support levels can be affected by whether a constituent is a party member or not but also by how long the constituent has been a member.

Support levels are separated into Current Support and Lifetime Support. Current Support is based on data collected only within the last 360 days. Lifetime Support is based on all data that has ever been collected and imported into the database, including legacy data. Current supporters are very likely to vote for us in the upcoming elections or obtain as volunteers. 

It is important to know how many supporters, non-supporters and undecided constituents you have in your riding. Knowing these numbers can give you continual feedback on how your overall campaign is progressing and which areas you need to target. 

On the Dashboard are two pie charts:

The first pie chart shows the Current Supporters in your riding and the second chart shows the Lifetime Support.

In this diagram, the Current Support shows that it is based on 14.32% of views and Lifetime Support is based on 16.23% of views. The Current Support number indicates that within the past 365 days, the overall party has talked to 14.32% of the voters in your riding. The numbers of Supporters, Non-Supporters and Undecided at the bottom of the window indicate the actual count of individuals who have expressed an opinion.

There are several ways that a campaign can use these numbers. For example, the number of Current Supporters in the picture above is 4,314. A Campaign Manager may set a goal for E-Day to raise that number to 10,000 or 15,000. Then, every single day during the writ, the Campaign Manager could set daily goals of 50 or 100 new supporters. Setting obtainable goals and reaching them on a daily basis is a good way to motivate the campaign team.

How to switch a support level

Here's how to switch someone's support level in the database:

• Locate the constituent in the database via search tool and double-click on their profile to open it up in a new window.
• Click the Tracking Event link (towards the bottom of the screen).
• Click Add Event (button on the right side of the profile window). This will prompt the Tracking Event Details (bottom of the window) to become active so you can enter information in order to change the support score.
• Leave the Election drop-down to 2018 General Election.
• Change the Event Type drop-down to how the person informed you that they are (or aren't) a supporter. For example, they may have let you know in an email or over the phone ( Correspondence) or while you were contacting folks to ask that they renew their memberships (Political Membership).
• Change the Support Level drop-down to what the constituent indicated as their support level (in this case, I would switch it to "non-supporter" unless you know how they plan on voting).
• Change the Contact Method drop-down to how you communicated with the constituent.
• You can add extra notes as needed in the Notes field.
• Click the Save Changes button to save your changes. Now the person should show up as a non-supporter.

Let us know if you have any additional questions or email us at support@ontariopc.com.